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Pathways to Citizenship for Undocumented Immigrants

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“Families with undocumented members need the stability and certainty that comes with legal status so they can achieve their maximum economic potential, and add to America’s post-pandemic recovery.”

Overview

FWD.us estimates that nearly all undocumented immigrants belong to groups that most Americans say should be provided a pathway to citizenship. These groups include essential workers, Dreamers who came to the U.S. as children, undocumented individuals living in the U.S. for many years, those with U.S. citizen family members, or those who currently have temporary protection from deportation. 

See our interactive for multiple pathways to U.S. citizenship.

Multiple pieces of commonsense legislation providing a pathway to citizenship for many of these groups have bipartisan support in Congress, but Congress has failed to pass this kind of legislation for decades. It’s well past time for Congress to provide the certainty that undocumented immigrants need as they work essential jobs, go to school, support their families, and help rebuild the American economy. 

FWD.us polling over the past several months shows a similar theme: the U.S. public strongly supports granting undocumented residents already living in the U.S. the ability to earn citizenship. Clear majorities of the American public support a pathway to citizenship for various undocumented groups. For example, recent national polling found that 71% of the U.S. public supports the Dream Act, a bill that would give Dreamers, or those who came to the U.S. as children, a pathway to citizenship. Similarly, 71% of respondents in the same poll support offering a pathway to citizenship to farmworkers, while 66% support offering citizenship to essential workers. 

Recent FWD.us polling also finds a similarly strong level of support in battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. We found a large majority of people in these states supports a pathway to citizenship for undocumented groups, in the states that could determine control of Congress next year and the Presidency in 2024. A pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrant groups is an incredibly popular policy in places where it will matter most electorally.

In this combined subset of battleground states, the U.S. public supports creating a pathway to citizenship for several undocumented immigrant groups. Key takeaways include:

  • 79% support creating a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. 10 years or longer. 
  • 79% support citizenship for undocumented immigrants with U.S. citizen children, while 75% support citizenship for those married to U.S. citizens. 
  • 71% support citizenship for people seeking asylum, and a further 68% support citizenship for undocumented immigrants who are temporarily protected from deportation. 

Undocumented immigrants are a vital part of America’s workforce, particularly as the U.S. continues to respond to and recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. FWD.us estimates show that substantial shares of critical occupations nationwide are filled by undocumented individuals, including crucial jobs in farming (34%), construction (13%), building grounds and maintenance (13%), food preparation and services (7%), and manufacturing and production (7%), with even higher shares for some occupation groups in California, Texas, Florida, Nevada, New Jersey, and Georgia. With the economy projected to be near full employment by the end of 2022, the U.S. will need every person available to continue fighting the pandemic and rebuilding America’s infrastructure.

See our interactive for estimates of the undocumented share of critical occupations in the American workforce.

FWD.us analysis also identifies that, when previously undocumented immigrants become U.S. citizens, they are more likely to live two times or more above the poverty line and file taxes. This should assuage some fiscal concerns of Congress as it considers legislation that includes a pathway to citizenship. 

This greater economic prosperity associated with citizenship carries important multiplier effects for the U.S. economy. FWD.us estimates that undocumented immigrants earning U.S. citizenship would annually contribute an additional $149 billion after taxes to the economy. This could result in a potential annual increase of $39 billion more in combined federal, state, and local taxes.

See our interactive of economic estimates for improved lives when undocumented immigrants are granted U.S. citizenship.

Congress must stop wasting time and needs to act and pass a pathway to citizenship. Families with undocumented members need certainty to live in freedom and safety, achieve financial stability, and maximize their economic potential. America’s full post-pandemic recovery depends on it.

Estimates for the multiple groups that make up the undocumented immigrant population rely on the residual method for calculating the undocumented population, using augmented 2019 data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS), made available by University of Minnesota’s IPUMS database. This method is similar to that used by other research organizations estimating the undocumented immigrant population, even though some individuals who are part of the undocumented population may be protected from deportation. For more detailed information on methods used to estimate the undocumented immigrant population, see our previously published methodology.

Undocumented immigrant estimates rely on specific characteristics for each undocumented group. Several of these groups are based on ACS-provided variables. Some, however, required additional parameters, including:

Dreamers — undocumented immigrants who came to the U.S. in 2019 or earlier, at 17 years or younger, and are either in school or have completed the equivalent of a high school diploma.

Farmworkers — undocumented immigrant workers making up the list of industries listed by the 2021 Farm Workforce Modernization Act. As many farmworkers are seasonal employees and may not always appear in population surveys like the ACS, estimates were upwardly adjusted based on studies of the U.S. agricultural workforce. 

Temporary Protected Status (TPS) — undocumented immigrants granted or eligible for TPS, a designation protecting immigrants who cannot safely return to their home countries. Included TPS countries are based on USCIS designations as of May 1, 2021. A random assignment of this population among undocumented immigrants identified in the ACS was selected, according to countries of citizenship and year of entry when applicable for the group.

People seeking asylum — immigrants who are waiting for a decision on their asylum application, whether affirmatively or defensively. Data from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) as well as the Department of Justice were used to estimate this population’s size in 2019. Then, a random assignment of this population among undocumented immigrants identified in the ACS was selected, according to leading countries of citizenship and year of entry.

Adjustment and change of status — undocumented immigrants protected from deportation while their green card, or some other temporary immigrant visa, applications are pending, but lack formal, lawful status while they wait. Data from USCIS were used to estimate this population’s size in 2019. Then, a random assignment of this population among undocumented immigrants identified in the ACS was selected, according to leading countries of citizenship and year of entry. 

Undocumented shares of America’s workforce are drawn from the same 2019 ACS data. Specific occupations making up broader categories presented in this report can be found here.

Congressional district estimates for the undocumented immigrant population rely on allocation factors of Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMA) to Congressional districts from Missouri Census Data Center’s Geocorr 2018 estimates. These allocation factors were applied to population weights in the ACS to get Congressional district estimates. Consequently, these breakdowns from PUMAs to Congressional districts are driven by population ratios, not the actual geographic boundaries of Congressional districts. Congressional districts are for 2018. 

Public opinion data are from Global Strategy Group (GSG). The survey is nationally representative of the U.S. voters, except for when noted in battleground states (including Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) as a combined set of states. About an equal number of respondents in each state were surveyed, and thus are not weighted for population. Battleground state polling was fielded during May 2021.

Comparisons of U.S. and non-U.S. citizens among immigrants who were likely formerly undocumented are drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). This nationally representative survey asked respondents about their immigration status when they first entered the country—either with lawful permanent resident (LPR) or another status. Because of this limitation in the survey question, the analysis in this report assumes that those entering from countries in the Americas without LPR entered as undocumented immigrants. This undocumented status is assumed to have persisted for most of these immigrants in the survey unless they obtained U.S. citizenship. As a cross-check, demographic characteristics of this noncitizen, likely undocumented group in the SIPP were similar to noncitizen immigrants identified in the ACS from the Americas. Outcomes are presented as predicted probabilities, after controlling for sex, age, year of immigration, education, marital status, income, employment status, region of residence within the U.S., and ethnicity. 

Economic contributions of undocumented immigrants are the total spending power of personal income available from ACS data, after estimated federal, state, and local tax payments. Negative personal income was considered zero income while the median level of income for the national U.S. undocumented immigrant population was used for ACS respondents who did not provide personal income. 

Federal taxes are based on federal and payroll tax estimates for market income by household type and household size from the Congressional Budget Office’s 2017 “Distribution of Household Income” report. Estimates do not take into account differences in local taxation rates, but are based on estimated state averages of taxation by income from the Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy’s 2018 report, “Who Pays? A Distribution Analysis of the Tax Systems in All 50 States.” 

Differences by citizenship status are based on multipliers of likely, formerly undocumented immigrants from the Americas. These multipliers were applied to personal income data in the ACS. Citizenship multipliers and likelihood of filing taxes, based on national SIPP analysis, were assigned to demographic groups based on sex, age, year of immigration, and education. 

Multiple paths to citizenship for undocumented immigrants

A pathway to citizenship may not look the same for all undocumented immigrants. Legislation now before Congress could lead some individuals to qualify because they are essential workers, while other bills could allow the earning of citizenship for those who came to the U.S. as children or cannot return to their home countries. Other individuals, such as those living in the U.S. for ten or more years, or sponsored by a U.S. citizen family member, could qualify if existing legislation were updated. And some individuals could qualify for multiple pathways, as they may belong to one or more groups. 

“About 93% of the undocumented immigrant population belong to groups that U.S. legislators have proposed be eligible to earn U.S. citizenship.”

FWD.us estimates that 9.3 million undocumented immigrants belong to groups that U.S. legislators have proposed be eligible to earn U.S. citizenship. This includes essential workers; individuals living in the U.S. for ten or more years; parents of U.S. citizen minor children; spouses of U.S. citizens; Dreamers who came to the U.S. as children; farmworkers; those with Temporary Protected Status; individuals seeking asylum and awaiting a decision; and individuals waiting for an adjustment or change of status.

ESSENTIAL WORKERS

According to FWD.us estimates, some 5.2 million undocumented workers are employed in essential industries as defined by the Department of Homeland Security1. Nearly 1 million essential workers are Dreamers, or individuals who came to the U.S. as children and completed at least a high school diploma, while another 400,000 undocumented essential workers have or are eligible for Temporary Protected Status (TPS), meaning they are protected from deportation because they are prevented from returning safely to their home countries by armed conflict, environmental disaster, or other extraordinary conditions. Also, 4.2 million undocumented essential workers have lived in the U.S. for ten years or longer, while 2.3 million are married to a U.S. citizen or have at least one U.S. citizen child.

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Legislators in Congress have introduced the Citizenship for Essential Workers Act to offer essential workers and their undocumented family members a pathway to citizenship.

IN U.S. TEN OR MORE YEARS

Long-term undocumented residents living in the U.S. ten or more years (arrived in the U.S. in 2010 or earlier) represent another large group of undocumented immigrants, making up 6.7 million people, according to FWD.us estimates. Of this group, about 1.9 million—or 19% of undocumented immigrants—have lived in the U.S. 25 years or longer. 

Undocumented immigrants who have lived in the U.S. for ten or more years are well established in their communities. Approximately 3.1 million are married to a U.S. citizen spouse or have at least one U.S. citizen minor child. Additionally, 4.2 million are essential workers. Nearly 500,000 have or are eligible for TPS. 

For more than a century, Congress has used time spent in the U.S. as a basis for undocumented immigrants to qualify for a pathway to citizenship through the registry mechanism. A legislative proposal could advance the registry date, a year in the Immigration and Naturalization Act, that would permit undocumented immigrants who have lived in the U.S. since that year to apply for lawful status. The last update was part of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, when the registry date was changed to 1972.

PARENTS AND SPOUSES OF U.S. CITIZENS

Millions of undocumented immigrants live in mixed-status families, or families whose members include both U.S. citizens or individuals with legal status and undocumented members. Specifically, nearly 3 million undocumented immigrants are parents of at least one U.S. citizen minor child. In total, it is estimated that more than 4.9 million U.S. citizen children have at least one undocumented parent. At the same time, more than a million undocumented immigrants are married to a U.S. citizen spouse.2
 

U.S. citizens can sponsor their undocumented spouses and children for a green card. But immigrants who entered without inspection, which is true of many undocumented immigrants, cannot adjust their status because they are considered inadmissible. Instead, they first need to leave the U.S. and apply for an immigrant visa at a U.S. embassy or consulate abroad. This is generally a lengthy process, resulting in prolonged family separation. 

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But, more importantly, if the undocumented individual has been in the U.S. for as little as six months or as much as a year, they are barred from re-entering the U.S. for three and ten years, respectively, unless they qualify for a “hardship” waiver. These inadmissibility bars, which separate family members from each other for years, cause extreme harm and destabilize entire communities. Changing these inadmissibility bars could offer pathways to U.S. citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants, providing a lawful pathway already in place for keeping families together.

Another policy that legislators could use to help mixed-status families stay together would be to extend the application date for a §245(i) adjustment, allowing U.S. citizens to sponsor family members who are undocumented.3 The current application deadline date is 2001, but it could be extended to 2022, allowing millions of U.S. citizens to sponsor their undocumented family members.

DREAMERS

FWD.us estimates that more than 2 million Dreamers live in the United States. These undocumented individuals came to the U.S. as children, and are either in school or have already graduated with at least the equivalent of a high school diploma. 

Nearly 1 million Dreamers are essential workers, and some 125,000 Dreamers have or are eligible for TPS. Meanwhile, more than 1.4 million Dreamers have lived in the U.S. for at least ten years. More than 500,000 are parents of at least one U.S. citizen minor child or have a U.S. citizen spouse. 

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Most Dreamers came to the U.S. prior to their teen years, and most are younger than 30. More than 800,000 are currently enrolled in school (K-12 or higher education students), while more than 1 in 10 have completed a college degree or diploma.

In a bipartisan vote, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the American Dream and Promise Act in March 2021. The bill offers a pathway to citizenship to the Dreamer population, in addition to other individuals such as those holding or eligible for TPS. The bill is currently with the Senate, which joins a similar bipartisan Dreamer legalization bill, the Dream Act of 2021.

FARMWORKERS

At least 650,000 farmworkers in the U.S. are undocumented.4 These essential workers have worked throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, providing food for America’s tables and preventing hundreds of millions of Americans from going hungry.

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The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed the 2021 Farm Workforce Modernization Act, a bill offering a pathway to citizenship for undocumented farmworkers and their families, which would provide nearly 1 million undocumented immigrants a chance at legal status. 

TEMPORARY PROTECTED STATUS

FWD.us estimates that nearly 640,000 people are either holders of or are eligible for Temporary Protected Status (TPS), which offers individuals protection from deportation with work authorization when armed conflict, environmental disaster, or other extraordinary conditions prevent them from returning safely to their home countries. 

Most of these individuals are from Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala), Venezuela, or Haiti, and about three-fourths have lived in the U.S. for at least ten years. Some 15% are also married to a U.S. citizen spouse, while about 25% have U.S. citizen minor children. 

The American Dream and Promise Act, which passed in the House of Representatives with bipartisan support, would provide a pathway to U.S. citizenship for most TPS holders or those eligible for TPS. A similar bill introduced in the Senate—the 2021 SECURE Act—would offer a pathway to citizenship for most TPS holders.

PEOPLE SEEKING ASYLUM

FWD.us estimates that more than 600,000 people seeking asylum at the end of 2019 were waiting for a decision on their case. People seeking asylum are generally protected from deportation, but since many may have entered unlawfully or overstayed visas, their uncertain future makes them part of the undocumented population. This vulnerability and the burden it puts on them could be greatly reduced with commonsense, legislative proposals that many people seeking asylum could benefit from, particularly if they belong to other groups like Dreamers and essential workers listed earlier.

The court backlog may take years as immigration courts adjudicate these applications. A more efficient and better-resourced immigration court system would allow for people seeking asylum to be processed in a more expedient and humane way. Most people seeking asylum  are recent arrivals to the U.S. and come from Northern Triangle countries. A substantive share are children, and a sizable number also qualify for TPS. 

ADJUSTMENT OF STATUS

Also part of the undocumented population are the more than 400,000 individuals seeking an adjustment to lawful permanent resident status, usually involving sponsorship by a family member or an employer.5 These individuals do have a pathway to legal status, but years-long bureaucratic backlogs mean it will likely take some time for them to adjust their status, over months or even years. In the meantime, they remain vulnerable to deportation. 

Because annual country caps  limit the number of green cards issued to individuals per country per year, some of these individuals can wait for years to be granted a green card; a solution is to eliminate these arbitrary country caps. Recapturing previously unused green cards presents another policy recommendation to reduce the number of those individuals waiting to adjust their status.

UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS OVERALL

In all, an estimated 93% of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. could be given a pathway to U.S. citizenship through the commonsense legislation and policy proposals for the undocumented groups listed above. 

With the passage of the American Dream and Promise Act and the Farm Workforce Modernization Act in the House of Representatives, as well as the introduction of the Citizenship for Essential Workers Act, Congress is moving ahead on legislation that provides citizenship pathways to most of the undocumented population. But Congress still has more work to do. Legislation for the groups listed above requires a vote in both the House and Senate, something a majority of the U.S. public supports.

America’s workforce has relied on undocumented essential workers throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, and will rely on undocumented immigrants again throughout the COVID-19 recovery

America has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, and essential workers who are undocumented have been on the front lines in fighting the pandemic, helping to keep all Americans safe, fed, and cared for. As the U.S. continues to rebuild, our recovery continues to depend on undocumented workers, too.

“Essential, undocumented workers have been on the frontlines in fighting the pandemic. And, America’s COVID-19 recovery will again need these undocumented workers to rebuild the country back better.”

Nationwide, undocumented immigrants make up more than one-third (34%) of workers in farming occupations. Similarly, undocumented individuals make up more than 1 in 8 construction workers (13%), as well as building and grounds maintenance workers (13%). And, more than 1 in 20 jobs in food preparation and services (7%) as well as manufacturing and production (7%) are held by undocumented immigrants.

These high shares of undocumented individuals in America’s workforce who hold critical occupations are even higher in some states. In California, Florida, and Washington, for example, nearly half of farmworkers are undocumented. Some 1 in 5 (or more) construction workers in Texas, Nevada, Georgia, and Maryland are undocumented. More than 1 in 10 food preparation and service workers in New Jersey and Utah are undocumented. 

As America’s COVID-19 recovery continues, the Federal Reserve estimates that the U.S. economy will grow 6.5% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022. Unemployment rates are projected to drop significantly this year, from 5.8% now to 4.5% by the end of the year. Unemployment rates are expected to drop further, to 3.9% in 2022 and 3.5% in 2023, meaning the U.S. will reach near full-employment levels within a year or two. 

As the economy recovers from the pandemic, additional workers will be needed in many of the occupations with high shares of undocumented individuals. For example, with undocumented workers making up 13% of America’s construction workforce, future infrastructure projects could benefit significantly from these undocumented workers’ skills and expertise. Some of these jobs may also require lawful residence for official or professional licensure provided by government infrastructure spending. Without offering a pathway to citizenship for undocumented individuals in these key occupations, U.S. economic growth may slow.

America has relied heavily on undocumented individuals in the workforce in our fight against COVID-19. After the brutal pandemic finally ends, America will again require undocumented workers to help in its recovery. Undocumented immigrants can’t be simultaneously “essential” and subject to deportation. Neither can they be both economically vital, yet subject to removal. Providing a pathway to citizenship will provide certainty to undocumented members of the workforce, and their families. It will also provide increased certainty for the U.S. economy.

Citizenship improves the lives of undocumented immigrants, their families, and their communities

FWD.us analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) survey shows that formerly undocumented individuals from the Americas who currently hold U.S. citizenship (61%) are more likely to earn two times above the poverty line than those without U.S. citizenship (47%). Similarly, a larger share with U.S. citizenship (60%) own their home than those without U.S. citizenship (44%).6 The same data also show that an estimated 83% of once-undocumented individuals from the Americas who are now U.S. citizens file taxes annually, considerably higher than the 73% for the same group of undocumented immigrants who are currently not U.S. citizens. 

“FWD.us estimates undocumented immigrants would contribute an added $149 billion dollars of spending power each year to the U.S. economy if they were U.S. citizens.”

The benefits of citizenship are real and significant; we have seen many of them take shape from the legislation Congress has previously passed. The increased financial prosperity associated with U.S. citizenship, however, not only improves the lives of families who were once undocumented, but also has important multiplier impacts for local communities, states, and the U.S. as a whole. 

For example, FWD.us estimates that undocumented immigrants would contribute an added $149 billion of spending power each year to the U.S. economy if they were U.S. citizens. Many states stand to increase their GDP by several billion dollars if undocumented immigrants were provided a pathway to citizenship. Similarly, most Congressional districts would stand to grow their economies by hundreds of millions of dollars. 

This added income of naturalized, once-undocumented immigrants could result in an additional $39 billion in combined federal, payroll, state, and local taxes each year. In most Congressional districts, this would yield several million dollars in additional local tax revenue in the years ahead, and, indirectly, could lead to additional tax dollars as local economies grow, with additional jobs and an even larger tax base.

Providing undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship is good for their financial stability, their families, and their communities. It’s also good for America’s economy. Congress has the opportunity to improve the economic lives of millions of families, those with undocumented status and beyond.

  1. Later FWD.us publications, based on methodological assumptions placed on the underlying 2021 American Community Survey data, provides an estimate of 1.1 million undocumented spouses married to U.S. citizens, lower than the 1.7 million estimate included in this report. The difference in estimates do not reflect a change in the actual population size; instead, it is the result of different methodological techniques in estimating the immigration status of immigrants in 2019.
  2. With adjustments made in this report for likely undercounting in surveys for farmworkers, this essential population is probably closer to 5.5 million.
  3. §245(i) adjustment can also be accessed via employment-based petitions, but FWD.us estimates indicate that a 245(i) date extension would likely benefit more undocumented members of mixed-status families than undocumented workers.
  4. Because of their vulnerability and mobility, the exact number of undocumented farmworkers is difficult to estimate, especially with national surveys like the America Community Survey (ACS) where undocumented farmworkers are likely underestimated. Other organizations point to other studies indicating the population could be more than a million.
  5. Although this group is protected from deportation, the residual method used for estimating the undocumented population cannot be disentangled to exclude this group. Many of these individuals were never undocumented, as most entered the U.S. on a nonimmigrant visa. Other research groups also include those adjusting their status in their undocumented immigrant population estimates.
  6. These estimates are after controlling for several individual characteristics, including income, sex, age, year of immigration, education, employment status and ethnicity. See Methodology for more details.
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