Policy & Reports/Reports/Dignity/Immigration

What has been driving
Migration from Central America?

New FWD.us analysis of global metrics and survey data indicate many people are migrating out of deep and credible fear: fleeing organized crime, local violence, or natural disasters.
Central American migrants begin their morning trek as part of a thousands-strong caravan hoping to reach the U.S. border, upon departure from Cordoba, Veracruz state, Mexico, Monday, Nov. 5, 2018. A big group of Central Americans pushed on toward Mexico City from a coastal state Monday, planning to exit a part of the country that has long been treacherous for migrants seeking to get to the United States. (AP Photo/Marco Ugarte)
Central American migrants begin their morning trek as part of a thousands-strong caravan hoping to reach the U.S. border, upon departure from Cordoba, Veracruz state, Mexico, Monday, Nov. 5, 2018. A big group of Central Americans pushed on toward Mexico City from a coastal state Monday, planning to exit a part of the country that has long been treacherous for migrants seeking to get to the United States. (AP Photo/Marco Ugarte)
“This analysis shows that deep and credible fear is a primary driver for Central Americans leaving their countries.”

Understanding motivations for migration is complex. Motivations for migration from Central America to the United States are many, and can vary at individual, household, and group levels. This analysis, however, shows that deep and credible fear is a primary driver for Central Americans leaving their countries.1

According to global metrics, residents of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras experience some of the world’s highest levels of organized crime, homicide, and risk of natural disasters. Survey analysis by FWD.us researchers indicates that this exposure to extortion, murder, and natural disasters is extremely prevalent among those considering leaving their countries. It is sometimes just as prominent, or more, as other factors, such as a desire to overcome economic hardship or to join family in the U.S.

The United States is an obvious destination for individuals and families fleeing dangerous situations, and it should remain so. Providing asylum and refuge to immigrants has historically been an important value held by Americans. And, in decades past, the U.S. has annually welcomed more people seeking refuge than any other country in the world.

The situation in Central America offers the U.S. an opportunity to provide refuge to those fleeing severe harm, and claim its rightful place as the world’s leader in providing humanitarian relief to people seeking asylum at our borders. Moreover, many of those seeking asylum possess valuable skills and experience that could help address some of the worker shortages the country has been experiencing, while simultaneously revitalizing communities large and small. The Biden Administration must do more to ensure that Central Americans can access their international human rights to claim asylum in the U.S.

Global metrics show a dismal situation in Central America

Indicators of personal insecurity—organized crime, homicide, and natural disaster rates—are at global highs in Central America. El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras are among the top countries for organized crime. Intentional homicide rates are some of the highest in the world: El Salvador (52 per 100,000 residents in 2018), Honduras (39 per 100,000), and Guatemala (23 per 100,000). Similarly, these three countries face some of the highest risk of extreme natural disaster, such as the recent hurricanes Eta and Iota, as well as multiyear droughts. While most of the data that was analyzed is from before these dramatic storms, the impacts and regional destabilization following these disasters further contributes to the push factors outlined below.

These high levels of organized crime, homicide, and climatic risk create an environment where many residents cannot find safety for their families anywhere within their countries. This naturally leads residents to consider leaving.

“More than 8 in 10 adults in the region who plan on leaving their countries have personally experienced extortion, have had a murder occur recently in their neighborhood, or fear bodily harm from natural disaster.”

Survey data reveal how fear is contributing to migration

Within any country, certain individuals face a higher risk of falling victim to organized crime, homicide, and climatic risk than others. In turn, deep and credible fear of these tragedies can motivate individuals to migrate, seeking security beyond their home country.

FWD.us analysis of regional surveys conducted in 2018 and 2019 confirms that exposure to organized crime, homicide, and concern for harm surrounding natural disasters among Central Americans is highly associated with those considering leaving their countries. In fact, more than 8 in 10 adults in the region who plan on leaving their countries have personally experienced extortion, have had a murder occur recently in their neighborhood, or fear harm from future natural disasters.2

Additional analysis reveals that exposure to these fearful situations is prominently associated with people who are planning to leave their countries. For example, Guatemalan adults experiencing extortion, homicide in their community, or fear of bodily harm from natural disaster were 50% more likely to plan on leaving their country in the next three years, even while controlling for other potential factors for migrating such as a change in their economic circumstances or having family in the U.S.3 Further analysis shows a similar pattern in Honduras, with Honduran adults being 38% more likely to plan on leaving their country when experiencing these frightening conditions.

“The Biden Administration should immediately enact policies that will allow these asylum seekers to find refuge in the U.S. in a safe and humane way.”

No more waiting. The Biden Administration must do more.

It is critical that the Biden Administration stop offshoring Central American asylum-seekers to Mexico and remove barriers in our asylum system for Central Americans who need refuge.

This includes the complete cancellation of Title 42 for asylum claims at U.S. borders and fully defending the legal rescission of the Migrant Protection Program (MPP) in the courts. Additionally, the Administration should fully reinstate and support the Central American Minor (CAM) program that allows Central American minors to apply for refugee status from within their home countries, without having to make the dangerous journey to the U.S. border. These initiatives could provide immediate relief to people seeking asylum from these countries.

For many, asylum is the only opportunity many Central American migrants have who are fleeing fearful situations. Many other policy solutions could help alleviate asylum pressure at the border, including the expansion of temporary work permits for Central Americans and the modernization of permanent immigration avenues, including eliminating country-specific limits on immigration and recapturing previously unused green cards.

The evidence—global metrics, survey data, and social media posts in their own words—makes it overwhelmingly clear. Many migrants from Central America are experiencing credible fear from physical danger. Their voices must be heard, and greater access to asylum must be an urgent priority. The Biden Administration should immediately enact policies that will allow these asylum seekers to find refuge in the U.S. in a safe and humane way.

Global metrics
Several global indexes were consulted as motivators for migration from Central America. The organized crime indicator is based on a survey question of global business leaders as part of the World Economic Forum’s 2017-2018 Global Competitiveness Index. The intentional homicide indicator was collected by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime for 2018. The climatic risk indicator is based on Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft’s index.

Survey data
FWD.us researchers analyzed publicly available data from the Americas Barometer, a project of Vanderbilt’s Latin American Public Opinion Project. Surveys in 2018 and 2019 representing the adult population were conducted in Spanish for countries across the Americas. More than 1,500 respondents were surveyed in each country.

Pertinent survey questions used for analysis include the following:

  1. Migration—Do you have any intention of going to live or work in another country in the next three years? Possible responses: Yes, no, don’t know, no answer. Among those answering “yes”—How likely is it that you will go to live or work in another country in the next three years? Very likely, somewhat likely, a little likely, not likely, don’t know, no answer.
  2. Extortion—Have you been a victim of any type of crime in the past 12 months? That is, have you been a victim of robbery, burglary, assault, fraud, blackmail, extortion, violent threats, or any other type of crime in the past 12 months? Possible responses: Yes, no, don’t know, no answer.
  3. Murder—Have there been any murders in the last 12 months in your neighborhood? Possible responses: Yes, no, don’t know, no answer.
  4. Natural disaster—How likely do you think it is that you or someone in your immediate family here in [country] could be killed or seriously injured in a natural disaster, such as floods, earthquakes, or hurricanes/landslides/tornadoes/storms, in the next 25 years? Possible responses: Do you think it is not likely, a little likely, somewhat likely, very likely, don’t know, no answer.

Notes

  1. Because of data limitations—only national survey data, Spanish language of tweets—the report does not take into account the thousands of migrants from other parts of the world such as Haitians and migrants from Africa, or Indigenous people from Central America. Their stories and motivations for migration are not captured here and are worthy of further research.
  2. The survey was conducted prior to recent hurricanes experienced by Central American countries. Consequently, there are no data in this survey addressing their experience with natural disasters.
  3. Other demographic controls included sex, age, income, children in household, and province of residence.

Susie Haslett

Director of Immigration Capacity Building

susie@fwd.us
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