5| The U.S. may be risking its competitive edge as other countries invest heavily in talent attraction and development
More international students are considering leaving the U.S. after graduation and the interest that prospective students have in the U.S. as their higher education destination is dampening, likely resulting from the lack of viable pathways and increased competition from other countries to attract them.
Enrollment rates at U.S. colleges and institutions have fluctuated in recent years. New enrollments began declining under the first Trump administration, in response to restrictions on legal immigration, including travel bans, immigration bans, and policies targeting Chinese students, and then plummeted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, enrollments have recovered, though they have not reached the highs of the mid-2010s, and some experts are warning that 2025 numbers could see a significant decrease again.
Even when students do choose to study in the U.S., it’s becoming increasingly difficult to retain them long-term. A recent FWD.us study that focused specifically on advanced STEM degree programs found that, compared to a couple of years prior, more prospective students were anticipating short-term stays in the U.S. after graduation, three years or fewer. At the same time, participation in temporary programs like OPT and O-1A has increased, illustrating the potential to leverage underutilized avenues for retention.
Countries that the U.S. competes with economically are capitalizing on these difficulties by increasing their recruiting efforts and expanding opportunities for international graduates. Since 2000, the U.S. has lost 20% of its share of the international student market to countries like Canada, the U.K. and Australia. Canada’s international student population reached more than one million in 2023, thanks in part to policies like streamlined pathways to permanent residency that reward in-country education and work experience.
Other countries, like China, are also investing heavily in developing their own talent pipelines with a combination of domestic talent and attracting foreign-born experts, particularly in sectors like AI. For example, DeepSeek AI, a language model launched by a Chinese startup, was developed by experts who were mostly affiliated with Chinese institutions and who had never left China, a shift from the trend of Chinese scientists being educated in the U.S. or elsewhere abroad. Of the researchers who had worked in the U.S., 70% are now based in China, leading analysts to conclude that “the U.S. training pipeline served as a launchpad, not a destination.”
Further limiting options and opportunities for international students—by restricting or eliminating OPT, for example—would only further diminish students’ interest in studying in the U.S. or remaining here after they graduate. It would be an incredible gift to our competitors, sending the world’s best educated and skilled experts away from the U.S. and to their doorsteps. Experts in the global talent space are concerned that early efforts from this administration, including a sweeping effort to force international students out of legal status, will further undermine our global competitiveness.