Defending Immigrants/Policy & Research/Immigration/National

The Power of Plyler

The societal and economic gains of equal access to education for undocumented children and the future losses if it is taken away

ByScott D. Levy and Phillip Connor

"It was in school that I first learned about how big the world is. We studied maps, cultures, and histories that were so different from my own. It made me dream bigger and realize there was more out there for me to explore."

Gloria, 23, immigrated from Mexico at age 6

Report Highlights

The guarantee of equal access to public education for all children enshrined in Plyler v. Doe has:

Grown state and local government bottom lines, with total state and local income taxes paid by Plyler beneficiaries over their lifetimes exceeding the state and local costs of educating them by over $633 billion.
Increased the income of its beneficiaries by $171 billion between 1982 and 2022 and will increase GDP by $2.71 trillion over their lifetimes.
Alleviated child poverty, preventing an additional 730,000 U.S. citizen children of adult Plyler beneficiaries from living in poverty.
Strengthened the U.S. workforce, allowing more than 350,000 adult beneficiaries to work in jobs typically requiring some college education. Nearly one-fifth of them work in industries that typically require many college-educated workers, with 45,000 Plyler beneficiaries working in elementary and secondary schools and 42,000 in hospitals.
Improved public health across a number of health outcomes, including obesity, lifetime disability, infant mortality, infant health, childhood influenza, and mental health—reducing healthcare costs by at least $28.9 billion since 1982.

"School wasn’t just about books; it was about opening doors. I learned English there, I learned to dream there, and I learned to work hard for the future I wanted. It gave me hope when my family was struggling."

Rafael, 25, immigrated from Colombia at age 7

Introduction

In June 1982, the Supreme Court issued its decision in Plyler v. Doe, striking down a 1975 Texas law that allowed local school districts to exclude undocumented children from public schools. The Court’s decision put in place a cornerstone of the American education system that, for over 40 years, has protected equal access to public K-12 education for all children living in the United States, regardless of their immigration status. The Court in Plyler recognized the fundamental role education plays, not only in shaping individual lives, but also in our broader society and economy. Since then, at least 4.8 million children have benefited from access to Plyler’s protections, including approximately 1.8 million current school-age children.

"When everything else in life felt uncertain—when things at home weren’t going well, or we had to move apartments again—school was always there. It was the one place I knew I’d have structure, friends, and a chance to focus on something good."

– Minjun, 26, immigrated from South Korea at age 6

Through its guarantee of equal access to free public K-12 education for all children, Plyler has quietly underwritten decades of economic advancement, social mobility, and public health, strengthening families and communities across the country. This report sets out to show how Plyler has served as an engine of economic growth, skilled labor in our workforce, and improved health outcomes for over 40 years. It also examines what would happen if Plyler were reversed and undocumented students were excluded from America’s public schools.

FWD.us brought together leading economists, demographers, and sociologists to measure the retrospective gains of Plyler and the prospective losses if Plyler were reversed and undocumented children were excluded from public schools.

By enabling undocumented children to complete high school regardless of their immigration status, Plyler provided essential tools for social and economic integration and a foundation for basic public health. At a high level, the FWD.us research team found that Plyler’s equal access to education:

"Once I learned enough English, I became my mom’s voice. I’d go to the doctor with her, translate letters from the school, and even help her talk to our landlord. It was a lot of responsibility for a kid, but I was proud to be able to help my family."

– Daniel, 21, immigrated from Honduras at age 6

Grew state and local government bottom lines, with total state and local income tax paid by Plyler beneficiaries over their lifetimes exceeding the state and local costs of educating them by over $633 billion;
Increased the income of Plyler beneficiaries by $171 billion between 1982 and 2022, contributing to the overall U.S. economy, and will increase GDP by $2.71 trillion over their lifetimes;
Prevented an additional 730,000 U.S. citizen children of adult beneficiaries of Plyler from living in poverty;
Strengthened the U.S. workforce, allowing almost three-quarters of adult Plyler beneficiaries—over 1.6 million people—to work in occupations often requiring a high school education, including more than 350,000 in occupations typically requiring some college education; and
Improved public health across a number of health outcomes, including: obesity, lifetime disability, infant mortality, infant health, childhood influenza, and mental health—reducing healthcare costs by at least $28.9 billion since 1982.

Despite these significant social gains, however, Plyler’s guarantee of equal access to K-12 education has recently come under increased scrutiny. This report also shows how a reversal of Plyler and the exclusion of undocumented children from America’s schools would result in massive social and economic upheaval. Indeed, if Plyler were to be reversed and undocumented children were excluded from public schools:

The U.S.economy would shrink, with income losses over the lifetimes of Plyler beneficiaries amounting to more than $1 trillion;
The future workforce for U.S. businesses would shift, with a loss of more than 450,000 workers in occupations typically requiring a high school diploma and some 300,000 in industries typically requiring many college-educated workers; and
Healthcare costs would increase due to preventable conditions, with governments, individuals, nonprofits, and medical institutions incurring $24.2 billion in additional health-related costs.

Plyler’s guarantee of equal access to K-12 education has not only provided educational opportunity, stability, and social mobility for millions of children, but it has made significant contributions to our economy, alleviated child poverty, grown state and local tax coffers, strengthened our workforce, and improved public health. And Plyler more than pays for itself. A reversal of Plyler and the exclusion of undocumented children from public schools would have disastrous consequences.

*Information on this report’s methodology may be found here. Retrospective gains and prospective losses for specific states and jurisdictions may be found in the Appendix.

Plyler v. Doe - A Brief History

Plyler v. Doe, 457 U.S. 202 (1982), arose from a challenge to a 1975 Texas law that withheld state education funds for undocumented children and gave municipalities the option of charging undocumented children tuition to attend public schools or excluding them altogether. A number of students, represented by the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund (MALDEF), brought a legal challenge against James Plyler, then-Superintendent of the Independent School District in Tyler, Texas, and others, that ultimately made its way to the Supreme Court in 1982. In its decision, the Supreme Court held that the Fourteenth Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause applied to undocumented children living in Texas and prohibited the exclusion of undocumented children from public education. Writing for the Court, Justice William Brennan concluded, “By denying these children a basic education, we deny them the ability to live within the basic structure of our civic institutions.”

Recently, the central constitutional tenet of Plyler—that the government must provide the same free public K-12 education for undocumented children that it does for U.S. citizen children—has been questioned. This scrutiny, however, merely marks a new chapter in the opposition to Plyler, which reached its apex in 1994 when California passed Proposition 187. Proposition 187 required verification of the immigration status of parents and students to receive social services and the exclusion of undocumented children from public schools. Though Proposition 187 was ultimately deemed unconstitutional under Plyler, it presaged challenges to come and laid the groundwork for current attacks. Courts, however, have continually reaffirmed Plyler’s core holding and it remains a bedrock of constitutional law.

Voices of Plyler Beneficiaries

Plyler’s guarantee of universal equal access to public education plays a critical role in social integration and nurturing strong and healthy children with a sense of possibility and opportunity:

"School was where I could forget everything else. In the classroom, I was just a kid like everyone else. I didn’t feel different, and that made all the difference. It gave me a sense of belonging that I carried with me through life." – Diego, 24, immigrated from El Salvador at age 3

"I was the quietest kid in class, but my teacher encouraged me to join the debate team. I was terrified, but she saw something in me. Speaking in front of people was the scariest thing I’d ever done, but it also gave me confidence I didn’t know I had." – Paco, 20, immigrated from Peru at age 11

The Beneficiaries of Plyler

Some 4.8 million people living in the U.S. have benefited from Plyler’s guarantee of equal educational access since 1982. The Plyler cohort is broken up into three distinct groups:

1. Adults who benefited from Plyler and have since adjusted their immigration status

This group includes approximately 430,000 people who arrived in the United States as undocumented immigrants and who subsequently became citizens or legal permanent residents (LPRs). The vast majority of this group gained legal status through the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA) during the Reagan administration, which provided a pathway for legalization for certain undocumented immigrants at that time. On average, this group arrived in the U.S. at age 7 with about 3 years of education. They have spent an average of 44 years in the U.S. and acquired, on average, 8 years of education under Plyler.

2. Currently undocumented adults who previously benefited from Plyler

This group includes approximately 2.6 million people who reached the age of 18 prior to 2022 and who remain undocumented. On average, this group arrived in the U.S. at age 10 with about 5 years of education. They have spent an average of 21 years in the U.S. and acquired at least 6 years, on average, of education under Plyler.

3. Currently undocumented school-age children

This group includes approximately 1.8 million undocumented school-age children who are currently covered by Plyler. On average, this group arrived at age 8 with 3 years of education. They have spent an average of 3 years in the U.S. and acquired about 2 years of education, on average, under Plyler so far.

**The Economic Contributions of Plyler Benificiaries**

Plyler laid the groundwork for the beneficiaries of those constitutional protections to attain, on average, an additional 5 years of education in the U.S. and, in many cases, to enter the workforce with a high school degree. This has had profound and positive effects on the incomes of Plyler beneficiaries and the economy as a whole:

The additional educational attainment protected by Plyler increased the income of current adult beneficiaries by $171 billion between 1982 and 2022, or approximately $61,000 per beneficiary in 2023 dollars. Lifetime income gains for adult Plyler beneficiaries who are currently living in the U.S. are expected to be $2.7 trillion, or nearly $1 million per beneficiary.
If Plyler were reversed and currently undocumented children were excluded from schools, it is estimated that their combined incomes would decrease by more than $1 trillion—or nearly $600,000 per beneficiary—over their lifetimes.
With access to public K-12 education, adult Plyler beneficiaries living in the U.S. have been able to better provide for their families, preventing an additional 730,000 U.S. citizen children of current Plyler adults from going into poverty.

Plyler’s impact on income gains (and potential losses if Plyler is reversed) is substantial at the state and local levels.

Net Income Gains & Losses at the State & Local Level

Source: FWD.us estimates based on 2022 American Community Survey data. See Methodology for more information.

Not only has access to education increased Plyler beneficiaries’ contribution to the U.S. economy writ large, but the total state and local income tax that will have been paid by current adult Plyler beneficiaries over their lifetimes exceeds the state and local costs of educating them by more than $633 billion. When federal educational transfers to the states are added, that number jumps to almost $690 billion.

The same is true at the state and school district levels:

Net Fiscal Gain at the State & Local Levels

Note: Estimates are rounded to billions and are the net state and local revenue after the cost of their education for adult Plyler beneficiaries living in the U.S. as of 2022. See Methodology for more information.
Source: FWD.us estimates based on 2022 American Community Survey data and tax rates developed by the Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy.

**Workforce Contributions of Plyler Beneficiaries**

Plyler guaranteed access to public education for undocumented children, reshaping their futures and, in turn, the fabric of the U.S. labor market. Access to universal public education not only impacted individual career opportunities, but also led to ripple effects across the composition of the labor force, influencing occupational trends, skill availability, and industry demands over time. Plyler provided the educational foundation that likely contributed to greater job stability, upward mobility, and overall workforce diversification, benefiting the broader U.S. labor market.

Occupations

The vast majority of adults who previously benefited from Plyler, were employed in occupations typically requiring at least a high school diploma in 2022: more than half (56%, 1.3 million people) in jobs requiring a high school diploma and 15% (352,000) in jobs typically requiring some college education.

Plyler Beneficiaries in Occupations Typically Requiring at Least a High School Diploma – Nationally

Note: Estimates rounded to thousands. Jobs typically requiring some college education are those in which the overwhelming majority (75%) of all U.S. workers have some college education. Jobs requiring a high school diploma are those in which the overwhelming majority (75%) of all U.S. workers have finished high school. See Methodology for more information.
Source: FWD.us estimates based on 2022 American Community Survey data.

California, Texas, Florida, Illinois, and New York all have large numbers of adult Plyler beneficiaries working in jobs typically requiring some college education. There are 4,000 registered nurses in Florida, 2,000 computer scientists and software developers in New Jersey, and 5,000 primary school teachers in Texas. Even in newer destination states like Colorado, Georgia, and North Carolina, sizable numbers of Plyler adults work in this category of jobs.

Plyler Beneficiaries in Occupations Typically Requiring at Least a High School Diploma – States

Industries

Plyler beneficiaries actively contribute to various sectors of the economy. Nearly two-thirds (64%) are employed in industries requiring an overwhelming majority of workers to have a high school diploma, and nearly one-fifth (18%) are in industries requiring an overwhelming majority of workers to have some college education. Plyler adults are present in industries like education, the medical sector, banking, consulting, and real estate, and have strong representation in industries like construction, where they make up 4% of the total workforce. California has over 116,000 Plyler adults working in industries requiring many workers with some college education. Plyler beneficiaries also contribute significantly to the public school system in Texas, where more than 18,000 Plyler adults work in elementary and secondary schools.

Plyler Beneficiaries by Top Industries of Employment – Nationally

Note: Estimates rounded to thousands. Industries requiring many workers with some college education are those in which the overwhelming majority (75%) of all U.S. workers have some college education. Industries requiring many workers with a high school diploma are those in which the overwhelming majority (75%) of all U.S. workers have finished high school. See Methodology for more information.

Source: FWD.us estimates based on 2022 American Community Survey data.

Plyler Beneficiaries by Top Industries of Employment – Top States

Impact of Ending Plyler on the Workforce

The projected workforce impact of a potential reversal of Plyler and the exclusion of undocumented students from American schools is striking, representing a profound shift in the occupational futures of school-age Plyler beneficiaries and a considerable loss of potential college-educated workers for the U.S. economy.. The exclusion of undocumented children from U.S. schools would result in an estimated future loss of 341,000 people working in jobs typically requiring some college education and 110,000 people working in jobs typically requiring a high school education, with the largest losses occurring in Texas and Florida. It would also result in an estimated loss of over 310,000 jobs in industries that typically require many workers with some college education.

Estimated Losses in Occupations Typically Requiring Some College Education from Ending Plyler – Nationally and Top States

Source: FWD.us estimates based on 2022 American Community Survey data. See Methodology for more information.

**Health Contributions of Plyler Beneficiaries**

Access to education is an important factor in determining numerous health outcomes over the course of a person’s life, and exclusion from schools during a person’s youth can have devastating consequences. Analyses indicate that the access to education guaranteed by Plyler is linked to health benefits across a variety of outcomes to individuals and society at large. Only a select list of examples is presented here, and it is anticipated that a future reversal of Plyler would have much larger, deeper, and more dramatic health effects.

General Health as Seen Through Obesity

The relationship between access to education and obesity is a powerful window into how Plyler can impact the general health of a population. Obesity is a predictor of several chronic conditions, including type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, hypertension, selected cancers, and musculoskeletal disorders, and is linked to worse economic outcomes throughout life. And the broader economic impact of obesity in the United States is substantial. Research suggests that access to education and school-based obesity prevention programs have reduced obesity levels among children and subsequently lowered obesity risks in adults.

We estimate that:

Without Plyler, there would have been more than 46,000 additional adults who may have been overweight without access to schools between 1982 and 2023, averting approximately $303 million (2023 dollars) in medical costs; and
Reversing Plyer and excluding undocumented children from schools nationwide would result in over $156 million in increased medical costs for governments, individuals, non-profits, and medical institutions resulting from over 23,000 additional overweight adults.

Generational Health as Seen Through Infant Mortality and Preterm Births

Access to education for future parents also impacts their children’s health and life outcomes. Maternal education is strongly linked to infants’ health and later life outcomes, including their education, earnings, and socioeconomic outcomes. Moreover, maternal education is linked to infant mortality rates. Mothers with less education are more likely to experience the death of an infant than mothers with more education. Access to universal public education for future parents is a direct investment in the health and well-being of future generations.

We estimate that:

Plyler may have averted 1,038 U.S.-born infant deaths and reduced preterm births by about 147,000 among women who benefited from Plyler between 1982 and 2023, avoiding medical expenditures in excess of $9.2 billion; and
Excluding undocumented children from schools would result in an additional 766 infant deaths and 108,000 preterm births in the future among those currently benefiting from Plyler, leading to $6.8 billion in additional medical expenditures.

Public Health as Seen Through Influenza Vaccines

Influenza is a significant driver of acute respiratory disease, a leading cause of healthcare visits and hospitalization for children in the U.S. Studies have linked access to education and school-based influenza vaccination programs to declines in influenza-like illnesses.

We estimate that:

Educational access guaranteed by Plyler averted about $1.58 billion in medical costs for Plyler beneficiaries between 1982 and 2023; and
Overturning Plyler and excluding undocumented children from U.S. public schools would result in an increase of almost $600 million during current Plyler beneficiaries’ remaining school-age years.

Long-Term Health as Seen Through Physical Disability into Old Age

Access to education has health-related consequences that impact a person throughout their life and into old age, when healthcare costs tend to increase. The incidence of “disability”—which for these purposes is defined as a condition that prevents a person from performing activities of daily living such as bathing, dressing, walking, eating, and grooming—is a lens through which to assess the impact of Plyler on long-term health. Education attainment is strongly associated with the timing of disability onset in life. People with more education not only live longer on average, but also live more years without a disability.

We estimate that:

The educational access guaranteed by Plyler resulted in a combined 1.1 million additional person-years—the number of impacted persons multiplied by the number of years impacted—lived without disability, saving over $15 billion between 1982 and 2023; and
Reversing Plyler and excluding undocumented children from schools would result in a collective increase of 725,000 person-years living with a disability and almost $10 billion in additional costs.

Mental Health as Seen Through Depression

Educational attainment also impacts mental health and, in particular, the extent to which people experience depression, with more education corresponding to a lower incidence of depression and fewer related health costs. For instance, people with depression are more likely to experience arthritis, stroke, diabetes, and asthma.

We estimate that:

As a result of their U.S. educational attainment, Plyler beneficiaries cumulatively and collectively experienced almost 300,000 fewer person-years of depression, saving $2.1 billion in healthcare costs; and
If Plyler were to be reversed and current undocumented students excluded from schools, current Plyler beneficiaries would experience an additional almost 950,000 person-years of depression, resulting in over $6.6 billion in additional healthcare costs over their lifetimes.

"My teacher would always tell me, ‘You have a gift. Don’t let anything stop you.’ Those words stayed with me. I don’t know if I would have discovered my love for painting without that support."

– Jade, 19, immigrated from Ghana at age 3

Conclusion

As these results show, Plyler’s guarantee of equal access to public K-12 education has underwritten more than 40 years of economic, health, and societal gains that go far beyond the 4.8 million people who have benefited from it. These gains, and the security and stability that they provide, further reveal the profound role that education plays in securing the health and well-being of families, communities, and our country as a whole. Universal free public education is an investment in our future.

Reversing Plyler and excluding undocumented children from American schools would squander that investment and, as this report shows, wreak havoc on America’s economy, workforce, and public health.

Authors
Scott D. Levy and Phillip Connor

Contributors
Phillip Connor, Research Fellow at Princeton University’s Center for Migration and Development
Matthew Hall, Professor and Director of the Cornell Population Center at Cornell University
Amy Hsin, Professor of Migration at Keogh School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame
Joshua Miraglia, Ph.D. candidate in economics at City University of New York Graduate Center
Francesc Ortega, Professor of Economics at City University of New York
Heeju Sohn, Associate Professor of Sociology at Emory University

Methodology

Demographic estimates for the number of individuals living in the U.S. as of 2023 who have potentially benefited from Plyler since 1982, and could do so in the future, are based on a combination of three accessible and known populations:

Previously undocumented individuals, who are now lawful permanent residents or U.S. citizens and who benefited from Plyler protections during the 1980s until they were legalized as part of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA);
Currently undocumented adults who entered the U.S. before age 18 and who would have had access to public education in the U.S.; and
Currently undocumented children who were ages 5 to 19 years old in 2023 and who currently benefit from Plyler.

For the first group of current permanent residents and U.S. citizens that legalized under IRCA, data from the Immigration and Naturalization Service were consulted to obtain the number of individuals, according to their year and age of entry into the U.S., who would have benefited from Plyler between 1982 and their year of lawful status. Some 430,000 individuals meet these criteria as being covered by Plyler’s guarantees prior to legalization. This total target number was used to randomly select individuals according to age, year of entry, and nationality characteristics in the 2022 ACS. This is likely an overcount, as the target population was not reduced by emigration or mortality. As a robustness check, the ratio of those with LPR vs. U.S. citizenship mirrored findings in the uptake of U.S. citizenship for this population more than a decade after obtaining LPR through IRCA.

Among currently undocumented adults who have benefited from Plyler in the past, the number of individuals is determined by immigration status assignments assigned by FWD.us researchers in the 2022 ACS and projected through the end of 2023. An estimated 2.6 million adults still living in the U.S. meet this criteria as having been covered by Plyler. This is certainly a substantial undercount of the total number of once-undocumented adults benefiting from Plyler as there were likely other undocumented students with access since 1982, but who have since died, left the U.S., or adjusted status through means other than IRCA.

Undocumented children who are currently benefiting from Plyler and who will do so in the future were also determined by FWD.us researchers’ immigration status assignments. Particularly important for this estimated population of 1.8 million children are the projections through to the end of 2023 to account for the population of new arrivals, including children, who do not appear in the 2022 ACS.

In all, an estimated 4.8 million individuals have benefited from, or are currently benefiting from, access to free public K-12 education since the Plyler decision and lived in the U.S. in 2023. These estimates describe access and not actual use. It is possible that many undocumented individuals who came to the U.S. as teenagers never went to school and thus never benefited from public education in the U.S. Overall, the estimates are considered conservative, particularly regarding Plyler’s retrospective gains.

Undocumented individuals include those with a protected status, such as DACA, TPS, parole, people seeking asylum, or other protections from deportation. All estimates for the retrospective gains and prospective losses from Plyler rely on these demographic assignments in the 2022 ACS, projected to 2023, including any relevant individual-level characteristics that can be of use to estimation. Consequently, 2023 is the pivot year whereby all measures, past and future, hinge, including constant 2023 dollars for economic outcomes.

Demographic estimates were prepared by Phillip Connor, Research Fellow at Princeton University’s Center for Migration and Development.

Retrospective economic gains from Plyler are based on synthetically constructed income histories of Plyler-benefiting individuals going back to 1982 when each individual turned 18 and likely entered the workforce. A series of counterfactual income histories in the without-Plyler scenario were calculated based on their educational attainment frozen in the past, reducing their likely actual income by about 6% for every uncompleted year of education. Individuals for the without-Plyler scenario, now without schooling, are assumed to enter the workforce at age 14. The net retrospective economic gains are the total aggregate cumulative incomes for the without-Plyler scenario subtracted from the Plyler scenario, reported in 2023 dollars.

Prospective economic losses if Plyler were overturned are first based on predicted income for each current Plyler-benefiting individual in 2023, based on the educational attainment of similar, undocumented adults in 2023. Assuming employment after 12 years of schooling, the future incomes of current Plyler-benefiting individuals are allowed to follow an inverted U-shaped earnings curve to accommodate the likely peak of earnings by their mid-fifties and decreasing through to retirement at age 70. By contrast, the predicted income for the same group, but under the without-Plyler scenario, are allowed to enter the workforce at age 14, following a similar earnings curve, but without the premium of additional education beyond their frozen level in 2023. The net prospective losses are the aggregate cumulative incomes for the Plyler scenario subtracted from the without-Plyler scenario.

Plyler and without-Plyler scenario totals, for both the past gains and the future losses, were reduced by the proportion of current Plyler adults who were not employed (24%) as of 2023. This allows for a more conservative set of estimates, as we would expect not all individuals to be in the labor force.

Economic estimates were calculated by Francesc Ortega, Professor of Economics at City University of New York (CUNY). More details on the methods used in preparing these estimates, as well as additional analyses, can be found in this methodological paper.

State fiscal estimates were calculated as the likely total taxes paid by those benefiting from Plyler since 1982 according to the same income histories developed for the economic analyses. Tax rates, which included all forms of taxation, were drawn by state from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy’s (ITEP) 2024 tax tables. All individuals benefiting from Plyler were assumed to pay state and local taxes according to percentile cut-points for family income. (According to the 2022 ACS, family income distribution was similar to individual-level income distribution). To simplify this exercise, tax rates were considered constant prior to and following 2024 tax rates. Past income histories were projected through to age 70 and discounted by 24% to conservatively assess the aggregate, cumulative income of working persons only.

For the cost of Plyler-benefiting individuals, the 2023 cost of educating a student in each state, according to the 2022 Census of Governments, was calculated according to the number of years they would have benefited from Plyler. Individuals were assumed not to have moved states during their educational attainment or working lives. The aggregate, cumulative costs of their public education, conservatively assuming all went to school for all 12 years, were calculated and subtracted from their total tax contributions for each state. The net result is the additional tax revenue in each state from the Plyler-benefiting population for their lifetimes beyond the cost of educating them for K-through-12 school years.

State fiscal estimates were calculated by Joshua Miraglia, Ph.D. candidate in economics at City University of New York Graduate Center, under the supervision of Francesc Ortega, Professor of Economics at City University of New York (CUNY). More details on the methods used in preparing these estimates, as well as additional analyses, can be found in this methodological paper.

Children pushed into poverty without Plyler is based on the number of dependent children (less than 18 years old) in 2023 who fall below the family poverty level after the replacement of without-Plyler income in 2023 of their Plyler-benefiting parents, as calculated for retrospective income histories described above. Children pushed into poverty are the additional number of children who would live below the 100% family poverty level in 2023 after these income adjustments without Plyler.

Poverty estimates of dependent children for the without-Plyler scenario were prepared by Phillip Connor, Research Fellow at Princeton University’s Center for Migration and Development

Past labor force gains through Plyler were calculated using the educational attainment for the total U.S. working population, creating groups of occupations and industries where the overwhelming majority (75%) achieved a certain education threshold for a particular occupation or industry. Three categories are included: (1) jobs requiring at least some college education; (2) jobs requiring at least a high school diploma; and (3) jobs requiring less than a high school diploma. Using Plyler status assignments listed earlier in the 2022 ACS, the analysis aggregates the number of adult Plyler beneficiaries who have been gained in occupations typically requiring some higher education and in occupations requiring at least a high school education.

Potential future labor force losses without Plyler were calculated using a random forest algorithm to predict the occupational and industrial skill levels that children currently benefiting from Plyler might possess as adults. The model is trained on data from previous adult beneficiaries of Plyler who are prime working age, using a range of predictor variables, including years of education, age at arrival, country of birth, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, state of residence, and protected legal status.

Labor force estimates were calculated by Matthew Hall, Professor and Director of the Cornell Population Center at Cornell University. More details on the methods used in preparing these estimates, as well as additional analyses, can be found in this methodological paper.

Health outcomes with and without Plyler are based on educational attainment, usually in the completion of secondary school, assessing the gains and losses with and without Plyler for Plyler beneficiaries. Since most health outcomes are based on annual events, the total number of person-years for Plyler-benefiting individuals is assessed both for the Plyler-benefiting adult population from 1982 to 2023 and also for Plyler-benefiting adults and children for future years. All metrics are calculated for lifetime health outcomes, with education typically presenting greater influence in later years of life, long after completing their education in public schools.

Although immigrants tend to be healthier than their counterparts in the U.S. and their origin countries, their health advantage may not persist. Research shows that immigrant health converges with the health of the U.S.-born population over time, particularly for immigrants who arrive as children.

Each health outcome calculation relies on a different set of studies to estimate health-related impacts of Plyler. A limited number of studies are available for health-related outcomes by education and associated lifetime impacts on health, particularly for the undocumented immigrant population. Thus, the outcomes presented here are meant to be indicators of the potential retrospective gains and prospective losses associated with Plyler. The negative health outcomes averted through Plyler’s guarantees are not meant to be exhaustive, but a sampling of potential outcomes. The analyses offer a window into the devastating lifetime health consequences that a generation of immigrant school children could experience throughout their lifetimes without access to public education.

Obesity. A randomized controlled trial of an obesity prevention program among middle schoolers found that participation in the program lowered the risk of adulthood obesity. The report applied the results of this experiment to the number of individuals with and without access to school-based programs to derive the number of overweight adults averted through Plyler in the past and in the future. Total medical costs associated with excess obesity are based on the average cost per capita published in the same study.

Lifetime disability. Educational attainment has a direct relationship with the onset of disability in later life. Disability is defined as being unable to conduct activities of daily living like bathing, dressing, walking, eating, etc. A recent study found that people without a high school diploma spent more years in disability than people with a high school diploma, and differences were more pronounced among women. Rates of lifetime disability years from this study were applied by sex to the Plyler-benefiting population to estimate the potential impact of Plyler on disability. Excess expenditures associated with increased disability were estimated using costs published in a separate study.

Infant mortality and preterm births to Plyler Women. Studies consistently find that women with less education have a greater risk of preterm birth and infant mortality than women with more education. The report estimates excess infant mortality and preterm births by applying the increased risks in the absence of Plyler’s guarantees to the expected number of births projected by the total fertility rate for Hispanic women living in the U.S.

Childhood influenza. School-based immunization programs improve vaccination rates and health outcomes for students and their immediate family members. The analysis drew on clinical trial studies of school-based influenza immunization programs to calculate healthcare cost savings associated with greater school access through Plyler, net of costs to administer vaccines.

Lifetime depression. A twin study that controlled for genetic and environmental factors found that depression decreased with greater educational attainment. The analysis applied the excess depression rates associated with lower education from the twin study to the Plyler-benefiting population to estimate excess lifetime depression in the absence of Plyler’s guarantee of equal access to public education. Excess healthcare costs due to increased depression were calculated using depression-associated health expenditures published in a separate study.

Health outcome estimates were calculated by Heeju Sohn, Assistant Professor of Sociology at Emory University. More details on the methods used in preparing these estimates, including underlying studies used to calculate the incidents of health events and related costs, can be found in this methodological paper.

Quotes are part of an extensive mixed-methods research project of undocumented immigrants enrolled in higher education institutions throughout New York City, and were an undocumented K-12 student at some point in their educational careers. The research was funded by the William T. Grant Foundation and Russell Sage Foundation. A more complete analysis of findings from the study can be found in Amy Hsin and Sofya Apketar’s book, Beyond Dreamers: School, Work and Identify among Diverse Undocumented New Yorkers, which will be published by the Russell Sage Foundation. To protect the confidentiality and anonymity of those interviewed, pseudonyms are used and any identifying information was not included.

Quotes were provided by Amy Hsin, Professor of Migration at Keogh School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame.

The Power of Plyler

The societal and economic gains of equal access to education for undocumented children and the future losses if it is taken away

"It was in school that I first learned about how big the world is. We studied maps, cultures, and histories that were so different from my own. It made me dream bigger and realize there was more out there for me to explore."

Report Highlights

"School wasn’t just about books; it was about opening doors. I learned English there, I learned to dream there, and I learned to work hard for the future I wanted. It gave me hope when my family was struggling."

Introduction

"When everything else in life felt uncertain—when things at home weren’t going well, or we had to move apartments again—school was always there. It was the one place I knew I’d have structure, friends, and a chance to focus on something good."