FWD.us Statement on BRIDGE Act Introduction

Posted by FWD.us on 12/09/2016

WASHINGTON – Following the introduction of the BRIDGE Act by Senators Dick Durbin (D-IL), Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), which provides a clean, legislative solution for 750,000 Dreamers who earned work permits and temporary relief from deportation, FWD.us President Todd Schulte released the following statement.

“We’re encouraged to see Congress moving closer to a solution that would avoid removing long overdue protections for young undocumented immigrants – often called Dreamers – who came to America as children. The bill provides a clean pathway for roughly 750,000 young people to keep living and working in the United States. If passed, we would keep teachers in schools, nurses in emergency rooms, and an important workforce contributing to our economy. Without Congressional action, it’s likely these young people, who have known no other home, would be deported to a country that is unfamiliar to them. This is the right thing to do economically and morally and we hope members in both parties will support this critical legislation.”

Background
The program has unlocked countless economic opportunities for roughly 750,000 young people, 700,000 of whom are in the workforce and paying income taxes. In addition to getting a job, DACA allows young immigrants to obtain driver’s licenses, get health insurance, access basic health services, open bank accounts, pay taxes, enroll in college, take out mortgages and car loans, and provide for their families. Losing DACA would rip away these basic necessities from young immigrants who are integrated into American society, and would be a tremendous loss for these individuals, their families, and their communities. DACA has allowed Dreamers to work in every industry and at nearly every single major company in America.

Removing 700,000 people from the workforce in a single day would cost $433.4 billion in GDP loss over a decade. Other consequences include:

  • Six percent of DACA recipients have also launched businesses that employ native-born American citizens. Without work authorization, those businesses would be forced to shutter, sending American workers to the unemployment rolls, and halting tax and economic contributions.
  • Consumer purchasing power would shrink drastically. Almost 55 percent of DACA recipients have purchased a vehicle, and more than one in ten — or 12 percent — have purchased their first home. 750,000 American residents would no longer be able to pay taxes or pay back loans for mortgages, cars, and higher education.
  • DACA repeal would divert limited enforcement resources from high security threats. DACA recipients have undergone biometric and biographical criminal background checks. Not only would a repeal drive 750,000 immigrants who have passed thorough background checks and are registered with the government back into the shadows, but it would waste enforcement resources.

FWD.US STATEMENT ON CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM BALLOT MEASURES IN CALIFORNIA & OKLAHOMA

Posted on 11/08/2016

“We’re proud to have partnered with broad bipartisan coalitions to help pass major criminal justice ballot measures in California and Oklahoma.”

“These victories show that criminal justice reform isn’t a partisan issue; voters in both ‘red’ and ‘blue’ states are embracing more balanced public safety strategies.”   

“California’s Prop 57 will make communities safer by supporting evidence-based rehabilitation programs, enabling the state parole board to determine which inmates can safely be released, and requiring a judge’s approval before kids can be prosecuted as adults.”

“Oklahoma State Questions 780 and 781 will reduce crime by supporting community-based rehabilitation programs, while locking up fewer Oklahomans for minor offenses like drug possession.”

“California and Oklahoma voters showed that bipartisan momentum for criminal justice reform is building around the country; federal and state lawmakers should heed this message in 2017.”

Key Points: Historic Latino Vote Margin & Exit Polls

Posted on 11/08/2016

Key points thus far on the Historic Latino Vote Margin and the Exit Polls
 
1) When discussing the Latino vote, it’s critical to use the tested and accurate Latino Decisions data, which finds only 18 percent of Latinos support Trump, an all time low for a GOP candidate. (More info below on why this is trusted methodology). 
LATINO VOTE IN 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (Latino Decisions)
Clinton: 79 percent 
Trump: 18 percent 
Other: 3 percent
Remember: President Bush got 44% of Latinos in 2004. Since that time, the vote share has gone UP 70% and Trump’s vote share has gone DOWN by 60%.
2) Among Latino voters polled, immigration was THE most important issue in every single state polled according to Latino Decisions
3) Exit polling confirms that after 16 months of attacks, support for a pathway to citizenship remains at an all-time high of 71%.
Below is our memo that is filled with talking points.
More on why Latino Decisions methodology is key:
Latino Decisions, the most trusted expert on Hispanic polling, has consistently shown Clinton far ahead of Trump all year using a rock-solid, representative, bilingual methodology.  Their just released exit poll shows that those polling results carried over until election day.

In recent years, it has become clear that exit polls — especially early exit polls shared by the networks — are flawed predictors of turnout and vote share of the candidates.  This is especially true with harder-to-reach minority populations.

The Latino vote is subject to especially high volatility due to language barriers and the difficult of interviewing that population.  During the entire campaign cycle there was a huge amount of variability on the Latino vote and much of it was wrong because of a lack of bilingual interviewing or care in sampling newer immigrant populations.  Frankly, many pollsters just got the Latino data wrong throughout the cycle by using a poor methodology.

Ultimately, there will be disagreement about Latino turnout and vote share.  We urge caution in interpreting the results and waiting for facts and methodologically rigorous data like the Latino Decisions exits before drawing conclusions.  We believe it will support a historic victory for Clinton among Latinos and a complete rejection of Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant agenda.

What They’re Saying: On Election Day & The Surging Latino Turnout

Posted on 11/08/2016

 
Shot…
“Donald Trump opened his White House bid by stoking fears of Mexicans flooding the border. But in the end, it may be a Latino voter surge that walls him out.” — Suzanne Gamboa at NBC News.
 
Chaser…
“We must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform. If we do not, our Party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only.” — GOP Growth & Opportunity Project report, March 2013.
 
In the polls…
Below are two select results from the first installment of the Latino Decisions’ Election Eve National and State Polls:
 
Immigration is a top issue within the Latino community. “When asked an open ended question in the Latino poll, a plurality of 39% of Latino voters nationwide said immigration/deportation was one of the most important issues facing the Latino community that politicians should address…” — Latino Decisions Election Eve National and State Polls.
 
Additionally, “Two-thirds of Latino voters say immigration was the most important or one of the most important issues to their voting decisions: A combined two-thirds of Latino voters nationwide (66%) said that the issue of immigration was either the most important issue in their decision to vote and their candidate preference (22% said “the most”) or “one of the important issues” (42%). An additional 27% said immigration was “somewhat important”, while only 8% said immigration was “not really important” to their voting decisions.”  — Latino Decisions Election Eve National and State Polls.
 
In the news…
“At the end of Trump’s campaign, he has returned to the theme with which he began: the threat that immigrants pose to American society….But the real news was about the electoral clout of “these people.” The background to those rallies was the accumulating evidence of a surge of Latino early voters, who may well change the course of this election.” —  Benjamin Wallace-Wells at the New Yorker.
 
“The very simplistic rhetoric that you hear from the Trump campaign about build the wall, ship ’em home, it just doesn’t resonate with Arizona voters by and large. It resonates with about 30 percent of the Republican base.” Faith Mangan and Alicia Acuna at Fox News, with Chuck Coughlin, Arizona political analyst.
 
“[A]n elderly couple from El Salvador, who had been legal permanent residents since 1988, decided to become citizens and cast their first votes Tuesday. The couple, Fabio, 91 and Marta, 80, Alvarado had told their daughter “they were so extremely disturbed” by the anti-immigrant rhetoric of the campaign that they were they pushed their daughter to help them get their citizenship, said Jorge Mario-Cabrera, spokesman for Humane Immigrant Rights of Los Angeles, CHIRLA.” — Suzanne Gamboa at NBC News.
 
“What an ugly year, no? Trumpism begetting Trumptakes on how the country was being ripped apart by the toxic American bundle of born-again nativism, old-school white racism, and “economic anxiety.” But then there’s this, which the immigration- advocacy group FWD pointed out today: Over the last decade —inclusive of 2016— there’s actually been a massive shift towards a path to legalization for undocumented immigrants. In a recent poll, Pew Research found that 80% of Americans support creating a way for undocumented immigrants to stay in the U.S. That includes 60% of Trump supporters and 77% of Republicans who voted for other candidates in the primary! This is a massive shift from a decade ago, in 2006, when only 40% of Americans favored a path to legalization.” —  Alexis C. Madrigal at Fusion.
 
“Arevalo said she hopes those in power in the country, and those running for public office in the future, are sent a clear message this election that the Hispanic vote is important, powerful, and capable of swinging an election — and that those who choose to sow racial divisiveness and unfounded fears about immigrants will face consequences at the ballot box.” Kevin Rector at the Baltimore Sun.
 
As seen on TV…
 
“It’s also what kind of America are we and what kind of America we want to be. In “Hamilton,” the lovely musical, there’s that great line in that song “Immigrants get things done.” Well, immigrants are now poised to perhaps deliver this election for Hillary Clinton. We are talking about a surge in the Latino vote that perhaps could be decisive in Florida, in North Carolina, in Nevada. So it’s very interesting that immigrants are not just thinking about, you know, comprehensive immigration reform but are thinking about how the country thinks about them as a group, how welcoming we are as a country to immigrants.” — David Gregory on CNN.
 
“[If Trump wins], the first thing he will do is irreversibly reshape the party. This was the party of Reagan, and the Bush years were sort of an echo of the Reagan years. Reagan defined the contours of the party. Trump will do that, and it’ll be change. Particularly the most obvious issues are going to be immigration and trade.” — Charles Krauthammer on Fox News.
 
“Ironically, Donald Trump said that after 2012, he was one of those weighing in and saying, ‘Boy, if you don’t pass immigration reform and start treating these people with respect, you Republicans are never going to win anything,’ and yet he doubled down on the ugly side of that message.” — Chris Cuomo on CNN
 
Bedtime reading…
 
 
Parting Tweet…
“Fascinating early voter data of Puerto Rican voters in Central Florida via @QueVoteMiGente #ElectionDay” — Julio Ricardo Varela, @Julito77