Opposition to immigration reform has created a demographic disaster for Republicans with Latinos, Asian-Americans and college-educated and young white voters. These growing segments of the electorate have shifted their support away from the Republican Party, putting some state's electoral votes out of play. Failure to pass immigration reform sets in place an Electoral College map that makes it nearly impossible for Republicans to regain the White House for a generation. See how these changes will affect future elections.
This project investigates the impact that changing demographics are likely to have on national elections, particularly for the Republican Party.
We began this data project by collecting raw demographic data from “States of Change,” a bipartisan report published in partnership between the Brookings Institution, Center for American Progress (CAP), and American Enterprise Institute.
The States of Change report provided projections of the eligible voter breakdown through 2050. This information was combined with voter turnout ratios in each state to determine estimates of the actual voter population for 2016, 2020, and 2024. We referenced GOP support at the state level from exit polls provided by CNN, New York Times, and 270towin.com from the 2004, 2008, and 2012 elections. + more
We focused our analysis solely on battleground and potential battleground states. These states are indicated on the map and include: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin. As states outside of this list are unlikely to be battleground states in the next three elections, we did not take them into consideration when a user moves the GOP vote share sliders. For states where exit poll data was unavailable, we used national exit polls for that year.
National election results are calculated by multiplying the projected share of the actual vote by demographic by the GOP support level within each state, as follows:
Republican Share of the vote = (AVW * RW) + (AVAA * RAA) + (AVL * RL) + (AVAO * RAO)
AV = Vote share as a percentage
R = Expected Republican support among voters
W = White voters
AA = African American voters
L = Latino voters
AO = Asian American/Other voters
As a user adjusts the national GOP support level, these changes are projected down to the state level by calculating the difference in the share of the outstanding vote at the national level and applying this adjustment to every state.
State GOP Support = Si + (Na * So / No)
Si = Initial state GOP support
Na = User adjusted percent of the national GOP support (final value - initial value)
So = State level share of the outstanding vote
No = National level share of the outstanding vote
Finally, we referenced the Center for Politics’ Updated 2020 Reapportionment Projections to address the changes in terms of the electoral college math that will take place in 2024.
We’d like to hear from you if you have suggestions or ideas about the approach that we took to determine future projections. You can reach us at firstname.lastname@example.org. Here is the data that we used in our model.
Donald Trump's embrace of a mass deportation plan is causing devastating consequences for the entire Republican Party with Latinos, the fastest growing demographic group in the country.
: Ayres, Whit. Source: “2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America” (Resurgent Republic Press, 2015)
: National Survey of Hispanic Registered Voters | May 27-June 1, 2014
Key findings: Americans overwhelmingly believe the immigration system in the country is broken and that Congress should take immediate action to fix it.Download
A detailed presentation outlining the challenges that the GOP faces, along with some scenarios and solutions for getting back on track with Latino and Asian American voters.Download
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